🇦🇺Australia

Inaccurate Reserve Forecasts

3 verified sources

Definition

Manual decline curve analysis often fails to account for changing reservoir conditions, leading to over- or under-estimated reserves, which impacts investment and production planning.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: AUD 100,000 - 1M per field in misallocated capex due to 10-20% reserve estimation errors
  • Frequency: Per field development or annual reserve update
  • Root Cause: Manual plotting and curve fitting ignores transient vs boundary-dominated flow shifts

Why This Matters

The Pitch: Oil extraction players in Australia waste AUD 500,000+ annually on poor Production Decline Analysis. Automation of decline forecasting eliminates decision errors.

Affected Stakeholders

Reservoir Engineers, Asset Managers, Financial Controllers

Deep Analysis (Premium)

Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Idle Equipment from Forecast Errors

AUD 50,000/day idle rig costs x 4-10 days/month delay

Depletion Charge Errors

AUD 50,000-500,000 per audit adjustment + 25% shortfall interest

Work Program Non-Compliance

AUD 500,000-2M per unmet key object (e.g., exploratory well costs)

Permit Application Delays

AUD 100,000+ per month in idle rig costs during 3-month approval delays

Idle Drilling Equipment

AUD 50,000-200,000 per day in idle equipment costs during approval waits

Environmental Non-Compliance Fines

AUD 10,000+ fines per breach (typical statutory minimum for environmental regulation violations); project delays costing AUD 50,000+/month in idle rigs.

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