Chronic Cost and Schedule Growth in Mission Development
Definition
Space missions experience persistent cost overruns due to inadequate up-front engineering, unstable funding leading to program stops and starts, and overly optimistic initial cost estimates. These issues compound throughout the lifecycle, as funding discontinuities and poor cost data visibility drive up expenses well beyond original budgets. NASA reports highlight integrated effects of process failures in project selection, risk mitigation, and reviews as systemic causes.
Key Findings
- Financial Impact: Billions annually across NASA programs (e.g., individual missions exceed budgets by 50%+ confidence levels)
- Frequency: Recurring per mission lifecycle
- Root Cause: Stops/starts in funding, lack of continuous stable funding, insufficient early-phase risk reduction and independent cost estimating, optimistic baselines without reserves
Why This Matters
This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Space Research and Technology.
Affected Stakeholders
Program Managers, Project Managers, Principal Investigators, Cost Estimators
Deep Analysis (Premium)
Financial Impact
$1-10 billion per program (Starliner absorbed $5B+; F-35 prime lost estimated $50-100B in margin due to cost growth on fixed-price portions) • $1-20 billion per program (SLS estimated $5.5B in 2011, actual $40B = $34.5B underestimate; Artemis underestimated by similar magnitude) • $1-5 billion per program (delayed cost visibility allows overruns to compound; Boeing Starliner example shows impact of poor cost tracking)
Current Workarounds
Ad-hoc bilateral negotiations via email and telecon; cost re-estimation spreadsheets passed between agencies; informal commitment tracking via meeting minutes; side-letters and non-binding agreements • Agency finance controllers coordinate via formal cost-sharing agreements (documents); spreadsheet-based reconciliation; annual audit meetings • Bilateral cost agreements documented in spreadsheets; formal change requests via email; quarterly reconciliation meetings
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Methodology & Sources
Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.
Related Business Risks
Idle Capacity and Bottlenecks from Single Supplier Reliance in Space Supply Chains
Non-Compliance with Subcontract Reporting in Prime Contractor Oversight
Supply Chain Disruptions Causing Cost and Schedule Risks in Artemis Program
Chronic Cost Overruns in Space Acquisition Programs Due to Inaccurate Estimates and Technical Risks
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