🇩🇪Germany

Asse II Minenschacht: Kostenverlauf und Überschreitungen (€417.5M über 5 Jahre, dann €114M jährlich)

1 verified sources

Definition

The Asse II salt mine (radioactive waste repository) required emergency takeover by Federal authority (BfS) in 2009 due to groundwater intrusion and safety risks. By end of 2013, €417.5 million had been spent on remediation and containment. In 2014 alone, €114.1 million was spent on 'operating and decommissioning.' The annual burn rate (~€100M/year) exceeds typical NPP decommissioning pace, suggesting that long-duration underground projects (planned duration: 20–40 years for Asse II retrieval) face sustained cost inflation. The 2013 €34 billion NPP estimate explicitly 'excludes cost increases' and covers only decommissioning through ~2045; storage thereafter is underfunded.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: Asse II: €417.5M + €114.1M/year ongoing = €530M+ over 6 years; implied cost variance from initial estimate: likely €200–300M (30–50% overrun). Extrapolated to full Germany NPP sector (6–8 sites with similar underground/storage components): €1.5–3B additional cost risk over 25-year horizon.
  • Frequency: Asse II: ongoing (1 site); extrapolation: structural (across sector).
  • Root Cause: Long-duration project complexity; underground mine safety / groundwater management; regulatory approvals delaying work; inflation; unforeseen technical challenges.

Why This Matters

This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Nuclear Electric Power Generation.

Affected Stakeholders

Project Management, Budget Planning, Risk & Contingency Management, Federal Authority (BfS)

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Financial Impact

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Kostenüberschreitungen bei Kernkraftwerk-Rückbau durch Preissteigerungen

€6–14 billion cumulative underprovisioning (inflation variance, 2013–2025); €50,000–200,000 per operator per annum in audit fees for manual cost recalculation (~300–500 audit hours × €150–250/hour).

Staatliche Kostenübernahme durch Operatorinsolvenz (HK-Fall: €1 Milliarde Risiko)

€1 billion (HK bailout, taxpayer risk); estimated €2–5 billion additional operator credit risk across remaining 6–8 operators (implied by HK scale).

HGB §249-Prüfungsrisiken: Unzureichende Rückstellungen und Audit-Qualifizierungen

€50,000–500,000 per audit finding (penalty range); 300–500 audit hours × €150–250/hour = €45,000–125,000 per operator per annum; cumulative across 6–8 operators: €300,000–€1,000,000 annually in preventable compliance overhead.

Manuelle Fonds-Verwaltungsaufwand: KENFO-Koordination und jährliche Kostenrechnungen

200–400 hours per operator per annum × €75/hour (blended FTE rate) = €15,000–€30,000 per operator per annum; across 6–8 operators: €100,000–€250,000 annually in preventable manual labor.

Redispatch-Kosten und Netzengpässe

Exact amount not disclosed in public sources; typical German redispatch costs estimated at €200-500M+ annually across all TSOs (industry standard: 2-4% of transmission revenue)

Netzausbauplanung und Genehmigungsverzögerungen

€200-400M estimated annual cost of delays and planning inefficiency (typical: 1-2 approval cycles delayed per year × €100-200M per cycle in deferred capacity investment + operational congestion costs)

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